Tesla’s new lorry proclamation set off a turn of conjecture per its price. Steve Levine, an Axios publisher who wrote a whole book about battery technologies, wrote a few days ago that “experts guess that the Semi could be $300,000.” MIT Technology Review speculated that the Semi would cost even more: $400,000.
So a lot of people were astounded on Thursday when Tesla posted estimated prices for its Semi product. According to the company, a low-end lorry with a 300 mile operation will cost around $150,000, while you’ll be means to get a operation of 500 miles for $180,000. A reward “Founders Series” lorry will cost $200,000.
That’s some-more than the $120,000 cost of a standard required truck. But Tesla says that its lorry will broach $200,000 in fuel and upkeep cost assets over the life of the vehicle. If that’s true, profitable an additional $30,000 to $60,000 for the lorry would be a bargain.
Tesla is labeling these as “expected” prices, and the lorry isn’t due to launch until 2019. Elon Musk has a lane record of environment overly desirous goals and blowing by deadlines. So we shouldn’t be astounded if the first deliveries trip into 2020 and a lorry with 500 miles of operation costs a bit some-more than $180,000.
Still, Tesla substantially wouldn’t be teasing prices this low unless it had some reason to consider it could broach some thespian cost reductions.
The pivotal issue here is battery costs. Batteries are expensive, and it takes a lot of energy to pierce a fully-loaded semi. Tesla says that its trucks devour “less than 2 kWh per mile,” so a 500-mile almost could need as much as 1,000 kWh of battery capacity. A Tesla executive settled last year that its battery container costs were next $190 per kWh. At that price, 1,000 kWh of batteries would cost $190,000, putting the sum cost of a lorry in the area of $300,000.
But Tesla competence be giving itself shake room with that 2 kWh per mile figure, and battery costs have continued to tumble given last year. In April, another consultant told Levine that a 500-mile lorry competence only need 500 kWh of battery capacity, and that batteries could cost as little as $120 per kWh, making the sum cost of the battery around $70,000.
That’s right in line with Tesla’s approaching costs for the Semi battery. The $30,000 cost disproportion between the 300 and 500-mile versions of the Tesla lorry suggests that Tesla believes it can get a 200-mile operation for $30,000, which translates to $75,000 for a 500-mile battery.
One snarl here is Tesla’s pledge that the lorry will be means to work for a million miles but breaking down. Levine says an insider told him that this pledge includes the battery. That’s startling since a standard lithium-ion battery is good for 1,000 charge cycles—which would meant the 500-mile lorry would need a new battery after 500,000 miles.
In an talk with Levine, Stanford researcher Tony Seba forked out one way to get a longer range: “If you don’t entirely charge and liberate a battery, it’s going to last distant longer.” So maybe Tesla is putting additional battery ability on the truck, permitting it to charge and liberate solemnly and never be entirely drained. But of course, adding some-more battery creates the lorry some-more expensive.
Fortunately, Tesla has good reason to design battery prices to continue descending over the next two to 3 years.
High-tech products almost always tumble in cost as they are made at aloft volumes. And that’s been happening surprisingly fast with batteries. A McKinsey study last year found battery costs had depressed so that a ability that cost $1,000 in 2010 was at $230 6 years later. If costs continue to tumble at that rate over the next 3 years, we can design costs to be good under $100 per kWh by 2020, putting Tesla’s desirous lorry cost targets absolutely within reach.